*BCREA ECONOMICS NOW* Canadian Monthly GDP (July 2017) - September 29, 2017
Growth in the Canadian economy was essentially flat in July following 8 consecutive months of growth. Only 11 of 20 industrial sub-sectors posted positive growth with output in key industries like mining, oil and gas and manufacturing declining. Given today's release, third quarter growth in the Canadian economy is tracking at about 2.5 per cent - a deceleration from the nearly 4 per cent growth in the first half of 2017.
The Bank of Canada has been emphatic that future rate adjustments will be highly data dependent. Slower growth in the third quarter likely means the Bank will hold off on increasing rates at its October meeting. However, beyond that meeting, as long as the Canadian economy is growing well above trend, which the Bank sees as a signal of rising future inflation, we expect further rate increases to come either by the end of this year or in early 2018.